Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply on Monday after five days of steep decline amid value buying at lower levels and a rally in global markets. Besides, hectic buying in blue-chip stocks ITC, HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries also helped in market recovery.
The other prominent gainers were Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro. Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
'The correction in the markets in the initial part of August provided investors a good buying opportunity.'
Investor confidence in value mutual funds remains robust, with the category witnessing an inflow of Rs 1,556 crore in January, indicating a shift in their focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
Benchmark indices gained for the third day running on Friday, with the Sensex climbing over 300 points amid mixed global market trends. The 30-share BSE benchmark advanced 303.38 points or 0.56 per cent to settle at 54,481.84. During the day, it jumped 448.68 points or 0.82 per cent to 54,627.14. The broader NSE Nifty went higher by 87.70 points or 0.54 per cent to end at 16,220.60.
The recent rally in small and midcap (SMID) stocks is not backed by fundamentals and is a case of irrational exuberance, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a recent report. The fundamentals of most of these companies have, in fact, worsened over the last few months, they noted. Yet, some analysts expect the bull run in these stocks to continue amid intermittent corrections.
Historically, March has been a volatile month for Indian equity markets. To begin with, it marks the end of a financial year, wherein there is some compulsive portfolio rebalancing trade by large funds - domestic and foreign. Retail investors, too, prefer to 'cash in' on their gains and losses before the financial year runs out.
Mass downgrades of GDP projections make it likely that there will be another wave of FII selling fairly soon
Gold prices rallied Rs 910 to hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 83,750 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday due to heavy buying from jewellers and retailers, according to the All India Sarafa Association. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had settled at Rs 82,840 per 10 grams in the previous trading session.
'On the weekly chart, the Nifty 50 index has formed a bearish candle and remains below all short-term moving averages.'
'Sell in May, go away' is a popular market adage. But 'Don't sell any new shares in May' is the best kept secret of Dalal Street that's set to break. Sample this: the last four General Election election cycles starting 2004 have not seen a single initial public offering (IPO) launch during the month of May.
The recent Bitcoin rally, which saw the cryptocurrency surge past the $100,000 mark on Thursday, is drawing Indian investors in droves. Cryptocurrency platforms in India are experiencing a significant uptick in activity and user sign-ups, driven by the optimism surrounding "crypto-friendly" Donald Trump's US presidential election victory.
'Some risks to this market rally include inflation, erratic weather conditions, rising crude prices, slowing global growth and the resultant impact on domestic exports, escalation in geopolitical tensions.'
Swift gains on Dalal Street this year have also led to a sharp surge in shares of equity market intermediaries like depositories, exchanges, and registrar and transfer Agents (RTAs). The stock prices of BSE, CDSL, CAMS, and KFin Technologies are up 24-283 per cent so far in 2023 when compared to a 9 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty index. With the market buoyancy expected to keep up the pace, analysts believe these stocks are a good long-term bet despite the sharp rally, which can trigger an intermittent correction.
The recent price correction in broader markets has hit cement companies hard. So far in the current month, smallcap firms like Visaka Industries, Andhra Cements NCL Industries, Sahyadri Industries, and KCP have lost 19.7 per cent, 14.3 per cent, 13.8 per cent, 13.5 per cent, and 11.5 per cent, respectively. On the contrary, largecap companies, while registering losses for the month, have seen a softer blow.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Finance were the biggest gainers. JSW Steel and Infosys were the laggards.
Nestle, State Bank of India, Power Grid, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro and Mahindra & Mahindra were the other major gainers. In contrast, Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank and Reliance Industries were the laggards.
'The markets seem apprehensive and that explains why the markets have been feeling slightly uncomfortable ahead of the Budget.' 'After the event, when all the concerns are resolved and clarity emerges, markets will decide what to do next.'
Automobile giant Tata Motors' shares were in demand on Wednesday as the stock rallied as much as 3.69 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 671.80 per share, before settling 3.18 per cent higher at Rs 668.45. By comparison, the BSE Sensex settled 0.10 per cent, or 72.56 points, lower at 74,029.76.
Elaborate security measures have been put in place in and around Ramlila Maidan where the Aam Aadmi Party will hold a 'Maha Rally' on Sunday against the Centre's ordinance on control of services in the national capital, police said.
Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
The government is expected to dole out some populist policies, especially for the rural / farm sector while presenting the interim budget, given that the country is heading towards general elections over the next few months.
India needs another shot of difficult reform, of the kind only possible at gunpoint. Mr Trump holds that gun to our heads now. A drastic reduction in tariff protection, other elements of sarkari wet-nursing will force entrepreneurial India to become competitive again, argues Shekhar Gupta.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
The markets may be entering a consolidation phase and are expected to trade sideways for now after a good run in the last few weeks, suggest analysts. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can book profits at the current levels and enter the market again on a decline from a medium-to-long term perspective. Thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24), the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up around 5 per cent to nearly 62,000 levels.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their all-time high levels on Friday helped by impressive GDP data and fresh foreign fund inflows. Also, a rally in global markets added to the positive momentum in the equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 1,139.04 points to 73,639.34 -- its all-time peak -- in the late afternoon trade.
Shares of real estate firms have been outperforming over the past year. The rally, analysts say, may hit roadblocks in the near term amid stretched valuations, even as the long-term prospects for the sector remain ebullient. "Most of the positive news flow is already in the price. Hence, investors sitting on hefty profits may partially cash out at current levels," suggests V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Adani Ports surged nearly 6 per cent. NTPC, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, UltraTech Cement, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries were the other big gainers. Bharti Airtel, ITC, Sun Pharma, Asian Paints and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the laggards.
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro and Bharti Airtel were the major laggards. Sun Pharma, NTPC, State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank and Axis Bank were the major gainers.
'To be able to sail through such volatilities, it is prudent to focus on quality.'
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Thursday debarred Pacheli Industrial Finance and six others entities from the markets in its bid to crack down on a "pump and dump" case, substantiated by a probe into Rs 850 crore preferential allotment and examination of alerts around price movement of the firm's stock.
Stock market investors became richer by a whopping Rs 77.66 lakh crore in 2024, helped by an overall optimistic trend in equities, where the BSE Sensex surged over 8 per cent. Analysts said the year witnessed a tug of war between the bulls and bears marked by volatility but, despite the uncertainties around the world, the Indian markets sustained the pressure and delivered impressive returns.
Zomato emerged as the biggest gainer, followed by Reliance, Nestle, Asian Paints and Power Grid.
Facing opposition fire for exit polls allegedly being used for stock market manipulation, Axis My India's chief Pradeep Gupta has said he is open to facing all kinds of investigations and it would help do business in a much better way if the government frames specific regulations for pollsters.
Separately, the hunger strike by climate activist Sonam Wangchuk in Leh to "remind" the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Centre of its promise to safeguard the Union Territory's fragile ecology and unique indigenous tribal culture entered its 15th day.
The volume of new fund offerings (NFOs) in 2025 will fluctuate based on market conditions. However, innovation is expected to continue unabated. With an increasing number of fund houses aiming to establish a presence in the 'factor' investing space and changes in fund-of-fund taxation providing more opportunities, several industry-first offerings are anticipated.
'Many of these issues will be resolved within 6 months because the US economy has started unravelling.'
Among the Sensex firms, Power Grid, NTPC, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, JSW Steel, Wipro, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries and Bajaj Finance were the major gainers. Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Larsen & Toubro and ITC were among the laggards.
Metal and mining companies, such as Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco, and Coal India, have been among the top-performing sectors on the bourses in recent months. The S&P BSE Metal Index is up 13 per cent in the past three months, rallying 29 per cent in the past year, outperforming the broader market. For comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has only seen a 1.7 per cent increase in the past three months, with a 15 per cent gain since the end of September last year.
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